Record of the Year Grammy Predictions: Taylor, Ellla, Two Olivias and More

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Predicting the Record of the Year race for the 2027 Grammys is both super easy and super challenging… depending on whether we’re focused on narrowing down the thousands of first-ballot contenders to eight nominees, or whether we’re jumping ahead to fixate on who the ultimate winner will be. It’s the nominations we feel like we have a pretty good handle on. But the final victor? That’s a different story, with at least a few completely viable scenarios about which candidate will finally prevail.

So it’s a good thing that, for the moment, the primary task is just to soothsay who will end up in making it to the field of eight. In real terms, the race is just getting underway, as general ballots went out to Recording Academy members on Monday, with first-round voting continuing through Oct. 22. From then, it will be several weeks until the nominees are announced on Nov. 16, nearly two months in advance of Music’s Tensest Night, aka the Feb. 7, 2027 Grammy ceremony.

As we did with Variety’s already-published Album of the Year predictions, we’ve narrowed what we see as the top Record of the Year contenders down into clumps — first, a list of 10 frontrunners from which we expect the eight nominees will be picked, followed by 10 more we feel stand at least a decent chance of slipping in, followed by a broader list of dark horses we don’t want to completely ignore. Following that, we take a look at the Song of the Year contest, in which there is inevitably a good deal of overlap but also some distinctions to take into consideration. Take a look and see how these line up with your own prognostications:

Record of the Year

Ten leading contenders, alphabetically:

Olivia Dean Man I Need
Ariana Grande Hate That I Made You Love Me
Noah Kahan The Great Divide
Ella Langley Choosin’ Texas
Bruno Mars I Just Might
Raye Where Is My Husband!
Olivia Rodrigo The Cure
Rosalía f/ Bjork & Yves Tumor Berghain
Sienna Spiro Die on This Hill
Taylor Swift The Fate of Ophelia

Ten more that could get in:

Brandi Carlile Human
Zara Larsson Midnight Sun (Live)
Madonna f/ Sabrina Carpenter Bring Your Love
Kacey Musgraves Dry Spell
Sombr Homewrecker
Malcolm Todd Earrings (Live)
Slayyyter Brand New Chanel$
Harry Styles Aperture
Tame Impala f/ Jennie Dracula
Don Toliver e85

Also coming up in the conversations: Audrey Hobert’s “Sue Me,” Phoebe Bridgers’ “Lost Boys,” Lady Gaga and Doechii’s “Runway,” Stella Lefty’s “Boston,” Karol G’s “Bby Wow,” Paul McCartney’s “Days We Left Behind,” Kehlani’s “Out the Window,” Cardi B’s “Errtime,” Ravyn Lenae’s “Handle,” Katseye’s “Animal,” Megan Moroney’s “Beautiful Things,” Tyla’s “Chanel,” Beyoncé’s “Morning Dew (Donk),” Shakira and Burna Boy’s “Dai Dai,” Justin Bieber’s “Speed Demon,” Dominic Fife’s “Babydoll (Live)” and Doechii’s “Girl, Get Up.”

Honestly, we feel unusually confident that the eight nominees will all come from that first list of 10 — which is foolishness, because this is the Grammys, with thousands of voters from wildly different chapters and demographics picking from among thousands of submissions. A surprise or three is always in order. But it feels close to a settled field. If asked to knock out two from that first field of 10 to get it bravely down to a firm eight, I’d probably dismiss the records by Ariana Grande and Rosalía. You could say Grande is a longer shot than some of the others just because she hasn’t been that much of a Grammy favorite in top categories in years past, for reasons that still seem puzzling. As for Rosalía, it’s by far the weirdest track under consideration here — opening with a blast of neo-classical symphonic music, then getting down to the artist singing in German and Bjork pleading in English, before ending with a male voice dropping a long succession of sexually intended F-bombs. Plus, Rosalía’s heat may be concentrated more in the Album of the Year category… but these are both just great tracks, mutually well-loved, regardless of whether they make it in amid such tough competition.

So let’s suppose that the final field comes down to Olivia Dean, Noah Kahan, Ella Langley, Bruno Mars, Raye, Olivia Rodrigo, Sienna Spiro and Taylor Swift, to keep with alphabetical order for the moment. That’s a murderer’s row of records right there. If, looking forward toward the ultimate winner, the idea is to continue on with a process of gradual elimination, then we could knock out Mars and Khan, because they’re men, right? It’s just not their year. I’m half-joking, but the tides do point toward a diva prevailing.

With Mars, sentiment toward what the best-loved tune on that album is has been widely split. He submitted “I Just Might,” the bravado-laden bop, for Record of the Year, and “Risk It All,” the sensitive ballad, for Song of the Year. “Risk It All” seems like the tune that has had longer legs, even if “I Just Might” was the bigger hit, so did he choose wisely? Time will tell. He brings some of the same factors that Swift does: Does already been having showered with so many Grammys help or hurt? Kahan is in the opposite position from Mars, as far as having virtually no history with the Grammys; his sole nomination prior to now was for Best New Artist. It would not be surprising if there is a substantial contingent of voters who think now is a great moment for this stadium-filling act to make up for lost time. Plus, Kahan’s such a winning personality, you know he’d give the funniest speech of the night. (Who would ever take that into account in considering casting a vote? Here’s hoping it’s just me.)

If we consider those guys the longer shots, though, let’s look at the amazing field of female frontrunners: a Taylor Swift vs. Olivia Rodrigo smackdown, which will set off a million more ugly fan feuds on social media before this is all over, plus a Fab Four of relative newcomers on the scene — Raye, Dean, Langley and Spiro. There will already be a fierce competition to see whether Langley or Spiro gets voted Best New Artist. (We haven’t yet made official predictions in that category, but yeah, consider this a spoiler for where that article is headed.)

If one of them is going to prevail for Record of the Year, the obvious bet to place would be on “Choosin’ Texas,” because, by any actual verifiable and objective data standard, it was clearly the record of the year. “Choosin’” recently crossed the 24-week threshold at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 to set an all-time record, making it the Tennessean elephant in the room. Country has fared poorly in even making it into the top categories in recent years, but Langley will obviously be the exception, and has a solid shot at being the first country winner for Record or Song of the year since Lady Antebellum’s “Need You Now” all the way back in 2011. Some might even say that if Langley doesn’t prevail in a top category this year, we should just sigh and take it on faith that it will never happen for the genre again.

Spiro, meanwhile, will just hit a lot of neo-traditionalist voters’ sweet spot; it would be a shocker (but is not unthinkable) if she could use that lovely beehive hairdo as a battering ram and shove her way past the bigger blockbusters here. Raye is like Spiro, in that you imagine her being a poster girl for the Recording Academy and the Grammys for years — maybe decades — to come. Whether that enormous and near-immediate repository of good will be enough to raise a signature song like “Where Is My Husband!” or “Die on This Hill” to the very top of the heap is an open question; there would be squeals of delight if either pulled it off.

But the best betting odds would be to favor Dean (a relative newcomer herself, having won Best New Artist last year), Rodrigo or Swift. Previously in this column space, we’ve taken a look at how, for Album of the Year, the race between the two Olivias may be tight enough that either of them should wait a couple of beats when they hear the winner’s name being announced in that category. Perhaps we could say the same when it comes to Record of the Year. But we also devoted a recent column to the interesting position Swift is in this year, as the recipient of some “she’s overdue!” sentiment. If you didn’t read the previous coverage and are wondering how that could be, the answer is this: For all the gold on her shelf, Swift has never won Record of the Year or Song of the Year… just Album of the Year seemingly a million times (and sure, some “lesser” categories as well).

“The Fate of Ophelia” certainly rivals “Choosin’ Texas” in some regards as the biggest single of the year. It certainly deserves the award for most charming meme-generator of 2025-26. Anyone who spent any time on Instagram in the last 12 months will well know now “Ophelia” had untold hundreds of thousands of fans re-creating the music video’s dance moves, something that may stick in the mind when considering what makes a record of the year. And that may ultimately be more of a deciding factor in a possible win than which categories the superstar has allegedly been robbed of up till now.

Swift had multiple No., 1s and split her submissions for Record and Song between “Ophelia” for the former and the Pixar tune “I Knew It, I Knew You” for the latter. But it’s interesting that Dean and Rodrigo, who also had multiple huge songs, did not similarly divide their chances between different songs, For Dean, it is “Man I Need” all the way, leaving “So Easy (to Fall in Love)” by the wayside. For Rodrigo, she foresook the deliriously upbeat “Drop Dead” and “Stupid Song” to go with the brooding ballad “The Cure” across the board. “The Cure” seems obvious in one sense — she’s called it her best song, and may fans agree — and risky in another, given how little history there is of a song built this much on intense melodrama taking the prize.

So don’t ask us to make a pick between any of the top candidates right now. We’ve got almost four months for that, and in the meantime we’re going to do what “The Cure” advises us to do: brood.

Song of the Year

Ten leading contenders, alphabetically:

Brandi Carlile Returning to Myself
Olivia Dean Man I Need
Noah Kahan The Great Divide
Ella Langley Choosin’ Texas
Bruno Mars Risk It All
Raye Where Is My Husband!
Olivia Rodrigo The Cure
Sienna Spiro Die on This Hill
Bruce Springsteen Streets of Minneapolis
Taylor Swift I Knew It, I Knew You

As is always the case, many of the nominees for record of the year will be duplicated n the song of the year category. But with the emphasis on writerly qualities, you can count on some tracks that are seen as particularly production- or rhythm-driven to drop out. So sone tracks that might be considered strong
for record of the year are less likely to duplicate here, possibly making room for an acclaimed singer-songwriter who tends toward the softer side to fill that slot, or something that had a high profile without becoming a Hot 100 smash, like Bruce Springsteen’s ICE-melting protest song.

As mentioned previously, Swift is placing her bets on “I Knew It, I Knew You” getting some attention here,
while “Ophelia” contends for her for Record. She won’t just be hoping for Grammy favor, of course: A nom for her Pixar film song could give a boost to the campaign the tune will be getting for a best original song Oscar in the weeks and months to follow.

Swift is not alone in splitting her chances with different submissions. Carlile is going with the balladic title track of her late 2025 album here, versus the rockier “Human” for Record. Mars has what many considered the most soulful song on his album, “Risk It All,” contending here in lieu of the bigger hit.

Whither Harry Styles in any of these categories? He has to be considered a contender for a nomination in any of the top three, but “Aperture” was far from an “As It Was”-level grabber, and was “vibey” enough that voters may give it more credit for the production than the songwriting per se, making it more of a candidate for Record of the Year than Song, most likely.

Another question about what’s most obviously MIA might be: Whither hip-hop? For anyone who closely follows the genre, that might not be such a looming question as occasion for a lot of sighs, as this was not a red-letter year for rap. Don Toliver is the most obvious hip-hop contender to break through with the Recording Academy in all-genre categories, as Drake once again did not submit at all, and neither did J Cole. Without any obvious choice to rally around like Kendrick Lamar, hip-hop is likely to go as unrecognized in the major categories as country usually does.

Also not submitting: BTS, as you probably read — not even in the “big” categories, let alone for the controversial Asian pop division — and the PinkPantheress/Zara Larsson smash “Stateside,” which would have seemed to be a Record of the Year contender, also was not submitted for consideration.

This is one of a series of columns predicting the nominations in key categories for the 2027 Grammys.

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