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Key pollster predicts Lula win
Tiago Rogero
Datafolha, one of Brazil’s most established polling institutes and owned by the Folha de S Paulo newspaper, has projected that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has completed his comeback against far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro and will be the president of Brazil for a fourth time.
The institute uses data from the official count and, “through its own system”, makes a projection, which is already the headline in Folha and other Brazilian media outlets.
At Bolsonaro’s headquarters in Brasília, the silence has been deafening since Lula retook the lead over the senator.
Many of his guests, who arrived celebrating, wearing Brazil shirts and cheering like after goals every time an update showed him ahead, have already started leaving with dejected expressions and without speaking to the press.
Bolsonaro is expected to make a statement shortly after the count is completed.
Key events
Lula is reportedly holding a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro with 75% of Brazil’s votes counted.
Tom Phillips
It’s now 51% Lula and 48.9% Bolsonaro with nearly 75% of votes counted.
Lula seems to be closing in on victory and the mood in his camp is increasingly excited.
This would be an absolutely sensational comeback from one of the biggest figures in the modern history of Latin American politics.
Lula has edged further ahead in the latest figures, reportedly taking 50.92% to Bolsonaro’s 49.08% with 69.92% of ballots counted.
Tiago Rogero
The celebratory mood that swept Flávio Bolsonaro’s headquarters moments ago when he overtook Lula in the vote count has disappeared since the president began closing the gap and moved back into the lead.
Despite the earlier celebrations, the atmosphere has in some ways been tense since the start of the evening.
Bolsonaro’s campaign is showing signs that it may be preparing the ground not to concede if he is defeated.
One of the most popular figures in Bolsonaro’s party, congressman Nikolas Ferreira, appeared unusually tense while speaking to journalists – unlike the jokey demeanour he usually has in front of the cameras.
He posted on social media:
Either we win. Or we win. You’ve been warned.
Tom Phillips
There were screams of joy in Lula’s hotel as he took the lead a few minutes ago. With nearly half of votes counted he now has 50.15% to Bolsonaro’s 49.85%.
“It’s going to work out! It’s going to work out! It has to!” one official told me.
The mood here is increasingly upbeat with Bolsonaro’s path to victory looking increasingly tricky.
Tiago Rogero
Lula’s main bet in trying to overturn Bolsonaro’s lead was to increase turnout, after abstention reached a record high in the first round – which, according to many polls, disproportionately affected the leftist’s voters, who generally live farther from polling stations.
The figures are not yet final, but with 24.4% of polling stations counted, they indicated an abstention rate of 19.38%, down from 21.08% in the first round.
Abstention usually rises in Brazilian runoffs – the only exception was in 2022, when the tight contest between Lula and Jair Bolsonaro brought more voters to the polls in the final round.
Tom Phillips
Meanwhile, hundreds of Lula supporters have camped out on Paulista Avenue to watch the vote count, which started at 7pm local time.
Among them is Camilo Buarque, 35, who came with a bright red banner reading: “Lula: My President”.
“I feel so very happy being here and being here fighting for Lula,” Buarque says, predicting his leader will beat Bolsonaro.
“My confidence comes from the energy and the happiness and the love of these people [around me]. This is democracy,” Buarque says as the first results come in, giving Lula the lead. Fireworks exploded in the air above him as the crowd celebrated the early lead.
João Felipe, a 27-year-old logistics worker, is also there waiting for what he hopes will be a huge Lula party.
“I’ve always been poor and Lula was a very important person when it came to helping people improve their lives,” he says.
“Lula is going to turn this election around. Long live democracy,” Felipe predicts.
“My heart is beating a thousand beats a second but I’m confident,” said his partner, Ester Almeida, 28.
Tiago Rogero
Flávio Bolsonaro is following the count from the mansion of one of his campaign coordinators in a wealthy area of the capital, Brasília. The dozens of journalists present are being kept separate from Bolsonaro and allied politicians, but from time to time they can hear bursts of celebration – like after a goal – whenever the count is updated and Bolsonaro narrows the gap with Lula.
When, with 13.65% of the vote counted, Flávio moved just slightly ahead with 50.01%, an AI-generated funk track began playing loudly and the senator’s guests started chanting a line commonly heard in Brazilian football stadiums: “Go at him, Flávio.”
And just like that, the race is already tightening further. Bolsonaro now has 50.01% of the vote, while Lula has 49.99% of the vote with just over 13.5% of ballots counted.
Tom Phillips
With 5% of votes counted Lula has taken an early lead with 51% of votes to Bolsonaro’s 48.87%. This is going to be a tight race and a very long night.
Tiago Rogero
One of the most popular figures in Flávio Bolsonaro’s party, congressman Nikolas Ferreira, indicated that the far right could use the extension of voting hours as grounds to challenge the election result in the event of a victory by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Speaking to journalists outside the mansion in Brasília where Bolsonaro was due to follow the count, Ferreira said that “the only person harmed” by the extension was the senator – without, however, mentioning the voters who, as reports throughout the day showed, had been unable to vote because they had no transport.
“The extension only helps whoever is losing,” said the 30-year-old politician who, in the first round, became the most-voted federal congressman in Brazilian history, with 3.1 million votes. He added that justice Cristiano Zanin “wanted to disrupt the election” by issuing the ruling.
Bolsonaro’s campaign chief, senator Rogério Marinho, echoed that line and called the justice’s ruling an “intervention”.
“I sincerely hope common sense prevails and that any judicial coup or administrative manoeuvre does not succeed, for the sake of democracy,” he posted on social media.
Polls close (again) in Brazil runoff election
Now two hours after the initial extension, polls have officially closed in Brazil (save for another surprise extension). Ballot count has begun.
Although voting time was extended across the country, some polling stations had already closed by the time that decision was announced. As Brazil uses electronic voting machines, once they are closed, they cannot be re-opened.
It’s not clear if certain polling stations had restrictions on if people who arrived after the initial deadline were allowed to vote, as rules usually stipulate that only people in line can still vote after the polls close.
The fact that ballot counting was already underway when the polls were suddenly ordered to remain open has led to some confusion and concerns about the integrity of the election results.
Battle over Meta’s alleged Bolsonaro bias intensified before presidential runoff
Tiago Rogero
Five days after his defeat in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election, leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spent almost 24 hours unable to boost his Instagram posts, while his opponent, far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, could.
Lula’s lawyers included the episode in a list of incidents that they submitted to the electoral court and international observers as “evidence” that Meta, Instagram’s owner, was actively trying to interfere in Brazil’s election in Bolsonaro’s favour.
Reports from Lula supporters saying their content had been removed or its reach restricted flooded social media in Brazil, while about a dozen watchdogs and research groups published reports describing what they called “indications” that Meta may have favoured the senator’s campaign.
Meta called Lula’s allegations “false and unfounded”, saying there had been “technical incidents” that affected campaigns from “different parts of the political spectrum”.
The controversy fuelled the electoral battle between Lula and Bolsonaro and gained further traction after the electoral court ordered Meta not to give the candidates “unequal treatment”.
Tom Phillips
Lula supporters are starting to gather on Paulista Avenue, at the heart of São Paulo, in anticipation of a Lula victory.
The mood is upbeat but tense, amid suspicions that there has been a deliberate pro-Bolsonaro campaign to sabotage public transport systems to stop Lula voters reaching polling stations across the country.
Many people on Paulista Avenue outside the iconic São Paulo Museum of Art suspect foul play from Bolsonaro-supporting politicians and business people.
“I think it’s another coup attempt that the extreme right is trying in Brazil. But we need to really fight so we can win,” said Lucas Lopes, a 32-year-old from São Paulo who works with public relations.
“I’m really worried but I’m optimistic,” Lopes added as dozens of Lula supporters blocked the roads and danced with banners and flags.
“It’s a coup,” agreed Caio Marques, a 40-year-old photographer from Franca, a city in the interior of São Paulo state. “Their arrogance is such that they think they have already won and can do whatever they please and won’t be punished.”
Marques’s partner, Gabriela Leôncio, said: “They are [stopping] public transport in strategic places where Lula has historically had more votes. Where Lula has an advantage, people haven’t managed to get to their polling stations … They are trying several different types of coup.”
Marques predicted the ploy would fail. “I have faith it won’t [work] because the left is really mobilized,” he said. “I’ll be sincere: in the first round the left failed. But in the second round they woke up … and there is no coup that will take this away from us.”
Could highly organised pop fans clinch victory for Brazil’s Lula?
Felipe Maia
Earlier this month, Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, led a rally in São Paulo, as he aims to be re-elected to a fourth presidential term, and faces serious opposition from rightwinger Flávio Bolsonaro. Taking the mic before a crowd on Avenida Paulista that organisers put at more than a million, the former union leader began: “I’m not sure whether to open this speech with ‘comrades’ or ‘fandoms from all over Brazil’.” The rally was organised by Lula’s Workers’ party (PT) and a string of other leftwing groups – but the spark came from pop music fandoms.
More than 600 Brazilian fanbase groups for Billie Eilish, Lady Gaga, Katseye, Demi Lovato, Harry Styles, Katy Perry, Selena Gomez, as well as Brazilian stars such as Anitta, Marina Sena and Ludmilla among others, all came together to back Lula, waging an intense online campaign as soon as Lula’s rival, son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro, came out on top in the first round on 4 October.
When the first round results came in, “I had this feeling I’d seen it all before with Jair Bolsonaro, and that was really frustrating,” says V, an Eilish fan who helps run Info Billie Brasil, one of the country’s biggest fan communities dedicated to the US singer. “So my first reaction was to use the only communication tool we have and get our community to embrace the cause: Lula’s re-election.”
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